A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
